March CPI-U numbers released: April 2025 issue I Bonds compelling

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) inflation data last week, which rose by 0.22% last month.

As always, now (along with the release of the September CPI-U) is one of the best times to consider purchasing I Bonds. The reason for this is that we now know what the rate of return for April 2025 I Bonds will be for both the first and second six month periods, which is important since I Bonds must be held for 12 months before they can be redeemed.

Using the CPI-U data from September 2024 (315.301) and March 2025 (319.799) (courtesy of inflationdata.com), we can calculate the variable rate for the second 6 month period for April 2025 issue I Bonds.

That means these bonds would earn a composite rate of 3.11% (using 1.2% fixed & 0.95% variable) for the first 6 months and 4.08% (using 1.2% fixed & 1.43% variable) for the second 6 months. In the current interest rate environment, an April I Bond purchase isn't a bad choice when compared to something like the 52 Week T-Bills @ 3.989% APY that will be issued on 4/17/25

In my opinion, April 2025 I Bonds are a reasonable choice, particularly for the 1.2% fixed rate if you plan to hold them long term. Based on the spread between I Bonds and TIPS, David Enna of tipswatch.com projects that the new fixed rate will fall slightly to 1.10%, which would make a purchase before the end of the month a bit more attractive. FWIW, Mrs. Frugalson and I will be maxing out our 2025 limit before the end of April.

April 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on April 10th, 2025:

Asset	Mar 2025	Apr 2025	Change
Checking	3,639	409	-3,230
Money Market	83,610	80,182	-3,428
Savings Bonds	247,594	248,173	579
Treasurys	110,000	110,000	0
CDs	52,915	62,209	9,294
Brokerage	483,195	443,274	-39,921
401k	451,398	427,644	-23,754
Roth IRA	324,919	307,218	-17,701
IRA	1,570,089	1,541,172	-28,917
529 Savings	170,916	167,117	-3,799
Total Assets	$3,498,275	$3,387,398	-$110,877
			-3.17 %

The S&P 500 has continued to struggle, falling 6.17% (-10.43% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

April has been a rough month due to the ill-advised global trade war and economic crisis that the US has created. Even though the US blinked during tariff escalation, the chaos and uncertainty this has caused cannot be easily reversed. In a short amount of time we have squandered the strongest economy in the world and turned our country into a global pariah. How can a company plan when a shipping container of goods may be tariffed at one price today and another price tomorrow and what will it be in a week, a month, or 6 months? Why would people across the world want to invest in the US when we are an unreliable partner that would impulsively pull the rug out from under them? I think a recession is imminent and suspect we're in one already and just don't know it yet.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for March rose to 4.2%, with a strong 228,000 new jobs created. Since unemployment is a lagging indicator, I anticipate it continuing to rise throughout this year as conditions worsen. Oil prices have dropped to the $60 level (from $67) with that $60 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.95 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, I skipped my usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account because I am not comfortable adding to our equity holdings at this time. I did take an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.335%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.309% while my 4 week T-Bills (4.308%) also matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.293%. In my IRA I bought 20 year T-Bonds at 4.632% and 7 year T-Notes at 4.233% with free cash and will likely participate in the 5 Year TIPS auction next week. I also had an Alliant 5.15% APY 23 month CD mature and moved the proceeds into my Navy Federal 4.75% APY 12 month add-on CD and also opened an Alliant 4.35% APY 17 month "elevated rate" CD offer that I received via email. Those CD rates are pretty attractive right now considering how Fidelity's brokered CD rates have quickly dropped during this crisis:

As for the non-financial, it feels like the world is on fire and I'm having a hard time watching the implosion of my country. I've can't believe I'm saying this, but I've never felt as hopeless about the future as I do now and I don't see that changing any time soon.

March 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on March 10th, 2025:

Asset	Feb 2025	Mar 2025	Change
Checking	3,013	3,639	626
Money Market	76,754	83,610	6,856
Savings Bonds	247,000	247,594	594
Treasurys	110,000	110,000	0
CDs	52,745	52,915	170
Brokerage	553,870	483,195	-70,675
401k	481,183	451,398	-29,785
Roth IRA	338,199	324,919	-13,280
IRA	1,601,799	1,570,089	-31,710
529 Savings	170,459	170,916	457
Total Assets	$3,635,022	$3,498,275	-$136,747
			-3.76 %

The S&P 500 has struggled of late, falling 7.48% (-4.54% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

A couple of weeks ago I did something that I never do. I have always been a "stay the course" guy through the dotcom bubble bursting, the Great Recession, and the start of the COVID pandemic and never made any changes to our investments during tough times. However, the chaos unfolding with our economy is my "it's different this time!" moment and I'm convinced that very bad things are coming. The United States is in the process of destroying our relationships with trade partners and allies through on again off again tariffs and threats while we have put the richest man in the world in charge of gutting our government. We're trying to deport millions of people from our workforce as we get ready to borrow more money we don't have for tax cuts and side with Russia against our European allies. After seeing the world order that has allowed our country to prosper for the past 75+ years starting to crumble I finally decided that I wasn't comfortable with the amount of risk I had been taking with our investments and cut our exposure to equities by 20% (from 70% -> 50%). That money is sitting in cash for now as I try to decide how to proceed. I just feel like I'm watching a car crash happen in slow motion and am powerless to do anything about it.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for February rose to 4.1%, with a solid 151,000 new jobs created. Oil prices have dropped to the $67 level (from $72) with that $67 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.85 and a heating oil price of $3.35 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, I skipped my usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account because I am not comfortable adding to our equity holdings at this time. I did take an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.511%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.314% while my 4 week T-Bills (4.323%) also matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.308%.

As for the non-financial, we at least got our tax returns filed on time and owe a little on our Federal and state returns. I'm also bracing myself for potential job and scholarship losses in my family as government jobs and spending are cut, so it feels to me a lot like when I was stocking up on things before the COVID pandemic took off as others were drinking in crowded bars like everything was fine. I sure hope I'm wrong. :(

February 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on February 11th, 2025:

Asset	Jan 2025	Feb 2025	Change
Checking	2,191	3,013	822
Money Market	82,041	76,754	-5,287
Savings Bonds	246,386	247,000	614
Treasurys	110,000	110,000	0
CDs	52,557	52,745	188
Brokerage	501,867	553,870	52,003
401k	461,366	481,183	19,817
Roth IRA	315,382	338,199	22,817
IRA	1,542,484	1,601,799	59,315
529 Savings	167,353	170,459	3,106
Total Assets	$3,481,627	$3,635,022	$153,395
			4.41 %

The S&P 500 has recovered nicely, rising 4.14% (+3.18% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

I continue to be surprised at how resilient the stock market has been in 2025 considering the initial chaos of the new administration and the constant threat of trade wars. To make matters worse, the inflation data released this morning was unexpectedly high with the largest increase since September 2023.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for January fell to 4.0%, with a solid 143,000 new jobs created. Oil prices have dropped to the $72 level (from $78) with that $72 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.89 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from December 2024!. I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.553%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.325% while my 4 week T-Bills (4.339%) also matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.323%. Mrs. Frugalson and I also made our full 2024 Roth IRA contributions since I finally had enough data to estimate our 2024 MAGI number.

As for the non-financial, we've gotten off to a lousy start in 2025 with cold weather, flu in the house and some deaths in the family. I also see financial dark clouds forming and hope that all of my friends and family are prepared to weather the storm.

January 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on January 10th, 2025:

Asset	Dec 2024	Jan 2025	Change
Checking	3,459	2,191	-1,268
Money Market	81,243	82,041	798
Savings Bonds	245,698	246,386	688
Treasurys	100,000	110,000	10,000
CDs	52,371	52,557	186
Brokerage	553,079	501,867	-51,212
401k	475,046	461,366	-13,680
Roth IRA	328,000	315,382	-12,618
IRA	1,598,480	1,542,484	-55,996
529 Savings	170,368	167,353	-3,015
Total Assets	$3,607,744	$3,481,627	-$126,117
			-3.50 %

The S&P 500 has pulled back in the new year, falling 3.44% (-0.93% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

Unfortunately, the devastating California wildfires are dominating the current news cycle. The loss of life and property damage has been terribly high and is getting worse every day. My thoughts are with everyone there and I hope the fires are brought under control soon so the long recovery can begin.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for December fell to 4.1%, with a blowout number of 256,000 new jobs created. That was not good news for the stock market as the resilient economy could lead to fewer interest rate cuts in 2025. It's also unclear what impact the proposed tariffs, trade wars, isolationism, mass deportations, debt-financed tax cuts, meddling with the Federal Reserve, etc. proposed by incoming Trump administration will have on inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Unfortunately, the economy is strong enough right now that things are more likely to get worse than get better. Also, oil prices have risen to the $78 level (from $69) with that $78 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.79 and a heating oil price of $3.10 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have dropped a bit since the last update. I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.615%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.335%. I also started rolling 4 week T-Bills (4.339%) to try to get a bit more tax-equivalent yield on short-term cash than money market funds are currently offering.

As for the non-financial, we officially put the holidays behind us by taking down our Christmas decorations a few days ago and trying to start fresh with the new year. For better or worse, extended family drama and mistakes by my S-Corp payroll and 401k providers are definitely motivating me to put 2024 behind me. I'm also still trying to wrap my head around a young relative's foolish financial choices and know at some point their never-ending spending spree on new cars, vacations, and gadgets will end badly. Not my circus, not my monkeys, right?

December 2024 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on December 10th, 2024:

Asset	Nov 2024	Dec 2024	Change
Checking	2,079	3,459	1,380
Money Market	81,518	81,243	-275
Savings Bonds	245,007	245,698	691
Treasurys	100,000	100,000	0
CDs	52,191	52,371	180
Brokerage	574,081	553,079	-21,002
401k	466,238	475,046	8,808
Roth IRA	324,030	328,000	3,970
IRA	1,580,033	1,598,480	18,447
529 Savings	168,541	170,368	1,827
Total Assets	$3,593,718	$3,607,744	$14,026
			0.39 %

The S&P 500 continued to touch all-time highs, breaking the 6,000 barrier and rising 0.85% (+26.52% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for November rose slightly to 4.2%, with a surge of 227,000 new jobs created. Oil prices have been relatively flat at the $69 level (from $68) with that $69 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.83 and a heating oil price of $2.90 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from November 2024! I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (5.103%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.511%. I also had 12 month T-Bills (5.214%) mature and used those funds to add another rung to my fixed income ladder with 5 Year T-Notes (4.197%). It's also noteworthy that my brokerage account balance dropped a bit after Oracle Corporation (ORCL) had a disappointing earnings release this week.

I'm also getting a bit stressed that Christmas is only a couple of weeks away and I still have so much to do. Let's just say that things are getting a bit stressful between medical appointments, things happening around the house, getting ready for the holidays and wrapping up EOY tasks for my business. I'll be glad when everything is done and life can get back to normalish.

November 2024 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on November 12th, 2024:

Asset	Oct 2024	Nov 2024	Change
Checking	2,871	2,079	-792
Money Market	78,536	81,518	2,982
Savings Bonds	244,314	245,007	693
Treasurys	100,000	100,000	0
CDs	52,005	52,191	186
Brokerage	538,638	574,081	35,443
401k	442,853	466,238	23,385
Roth IRA	321,722	324,030	2,308
IRA	1,552,757	1,580,033	27,276
529 Savings	169,363	168,541	-822
Total Assets	$3,503,059	$3,593,718	$90,659
			2.59 %

The S&P 500 continued a strong run, rising 3.53% (+25.45% YTD) as it hit all-time highs since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for October remained at 4.1%, with only 12,000 new jobs created as hurricanes and labor strikes provided a temporary drag on the job market. Oil prices fell to the $68 level (from $75) with that $68 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.94 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from October 2024! I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (5.212%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.553%. There was also an unusual move for me, where I bought some 5 year TIPS in my IRA at the Treasury auction last month with a real yield to maturity of 1.670%.

And to wrap up, I am soooo glad that the 2024 presidential election is over. I certainly won't miss the attack ads and hope the worst of the political rhetoric is behind us. I wish the new President-elect the best of luck, but I'm certainly concerned that the economic proposals he ran on (tariffs, trade wars, protectionism) will impact the great run the economy has been on for the past two years (fingers crossed).