September 2024 CPI-U numbers released: Neutral on I Bonds Purchase

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) inflation data last week, which increased by 0.160% over the past month.

As always, now is one of the best times to consider purchasing I Bonds. The reason for this is that we now know what the rate of return for October 2024 I Bonds will be for both the first and second six month periods, which is important since I Bonds must be held for 12 months before they can be redeemed.

Using the CPI-U data from March 2024 (312.332) and September 2024 (315.301) (courtesy of inflationdata.com), we can calculate the variable rate for the second 6 month period for October 2024 issue I Bonds.

That means these bonds would earn the current rate of 4.28% (using 1.3% fixed & 1.48% variable) for the first 6 months and 3.21% (combined 1.3% fixed & 0.95% variable) for the second 6 months. In the current interest rate environment, an October I Bond purchase is a reasonable choice when compared to something like the 52 Week T-Bills @ 3.946% APY issued on 10/3/2024.

In my opinion, October 2024 I Bonds are a reasonable choice, particularly for the 1.3% fixed rate if you plan to hold them long term. Based on the spread between I Bonds and TIPS, David Enna of tipswatch.com projects that the new fixed rate will fall slightly to 1.20%, which would make a purchase before the end of the month even more attractive. I've already maxed out my 2024 I Bond limit, so I'll evaluate them again in April 2025 once the March 2025 CPI-U numbers are released.

October 2024 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on October 10th, 2024:

Asset	Sep 2024	Oct 2024	Change
Checking	1,848	2,871	1,023
Money Market	78,084	78,536	452
Savings Bonds	243,533	244,314	781
Treasurys	100,000	100,000	0
CDs	51,828	52,005	177
Brokerage	492,227	538,638	46,411
401k	416,376	442,853	26,477
Roth IRA	308,792	321,722	12,930
IRA	1,500,048	1,552,757	52,709
529 Savings	183,165	169,363	-13,802
Total Assets	$3,375,901	$3,503,059	$127,158
			3.77 %

Hurricane Milton has followed Hurricane Helene, causing widespread destruction and loss of life in the Southeast USA. My best to the residents and rescue personnel who are working through this as a long recovery and rebuilding process begins to take shape.

The S&P 500 had another strong month, rising 5.18% (+21.18% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for September fell to 4.1%, with a surprisingly strong 254,000 new jobs created. Oil prices rose to the $75 level (from $67) as tensions in the Middle East flared (again), with that $75 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.94 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from September 2024! I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (5.383%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.615%. You can also see from my reduced 529 savings plan balance that I successfully completed a Fidelity 529 to Vanguard Roth IRA rollover for my children, maxing out their 2024 Roth IRA contributions.

Finally, the September 2024 CPI-U numbers came out yesterday, so we now know the full interest rate picture for October 2024 issue I Bonds over the next year. I'm hoping to make a follow-up post with more details next week.