Picking up Nickels

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

March 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on March 10th, 2025:

Asset Feb 2025 Mar 2025 Change




Checking 3,013 3,639 626
Money Market 76,754 83,610 6,856
Savings Bonds 247,000 247,594 594
Treasurys 110,000 110,000 0
CDs 52,745 52,915 170
Brokerage 553,870 483,195 -70,675
401k 481,183 451,398 -29,785
Roth IRA 338,199 324,919 -13,280
IRA 1,601,799 1,570,089 -31,710
529 Savings 170,459 170,916 457
Total Assets $3,635,022 $3,498,275 -$136,747
      -3.76 %

The S&P 500 has struggled of late, falling 7.48% (-4.54% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

A couple of weeks ago I did something that I never do. I have always been a "stay the course" guy through the dotcom bubble bursting, the Great Recession, and the start of the COVID pandemic and never made any changes to our investments during tough times. However, the chaos unfolding with our economy is my "it's different this time!" moment and I'm convinced that very bad things are coming. The United States is in the process of destroying our relationships with trade partners and allies through on again off again tariffs and threats while we have put the richest man in the world in charge of gutting our government. We're trying to deport millions of people from our workforce as we get ready to borrow more money we don't have for tax cuts and side with Russia against our European allies. After seeing the world order that has allowed our country to prosper for the past 75+ years starting to crumble I finally decided that I wasn't comfortable with the amount of risk I had been taking with our investments and cut our exposure to equities by 20% (from 70% -> 50%). That money is sitting in cash for now as I try to decide how to proceed. I just feel like I'm watching a car crash happen in slow motion and am powerless to do anything about it.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for February rose to 4.1%, with a solid 151,000 new jobs created. Oil prices have dropped to the $67 level (from $72) with that $67 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.85 and a heating oil price of $3.35 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, I skipped my usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account because I am not comfortable adding to our equity holdings at this time. I did take an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.511%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.314% while my 4 week T-Bills (4.323%) also matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.308%.

As for the non-financial, we at least got our tax returns filed on time and owe a little on our Federal and state returns. I'm also bracing myself for potential job and scholarship losses in my family as government jobs and spending are cut, so it feels to me a lot like when I was stocking up on things before the COVID pandemic took off as others were drinking in crowded bars like everything was fine. I sure hope I'm wrong. :(

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

February 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on February 11th, 2025:

Asset Jan 2025 Feb 2025 Change




Checking 2,191 3,013 822
Money Market 82,041 76,754 -5,287
Savings Bonds 246,386 247,000 614
Treasurys 110,000 110,000 0
CDs 52,557 52,745 188
Brokerage 501,867 553,870 52,003
401k 461,366 481,183 19,817
Roth IRA 315,382 338,199 22,817
IRA 1,542,484 1,601,799 59,315
529 Savings 167,353 170,459 3,106
Total Assets $3,481,627 $3,635,022 $153,395
      4.41 %

The S&P 500 has recovered nicely, rising 4.14% (+3.18% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

I continue to be surprised at how resilient the stock market has been in 2025 considering the initial chaos of the new administration and the constant threat of trade wars. To make matters worse, the inflation data released this morning was unexpectedly high with the largest increase since September 2023.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for January fell to 4.0%, with a solid 143,000 new jobs created. Oil prices have dropped to the $72 level (from $78) with that $72 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.89 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from December 2024!. I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.553%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.325% while my 4 week T-Bills (4.339%) also matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.323%. Mrs. Frugalson and I also made our full 2024 Roth IRA contributions since I finally had enough data to estimate our 2024 MAGI number.

As for the non-financial, we've gotten off to a lousy start in 2025 with cold weather, flu in the house and some deaths in the family. I also see financial dark clouds forming and hope that all of my friends and family are prepared to weather the storm.

Monday, January 13, 2025

January 2025 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on January 10th, 2025:

Asset Dec 2024 Jan 2025 Change




Checking 3,459 2,191 -1,268
Money Market 81,243 82,041 798
Savings Bonds 245,698 246,386 688
Treasurys 100,000 110,000 10,000
CDs 52,371 52,557 186
Brokerage 553,079 501,867 -51,212
401k 475,046 461,366 -13,680
Roth IRA 328,000 315,382 -12,618
IRA 1,598,480 1,542,484 -55,996
529 Savings 170,368 167,353 -3,015
Total Assets $3,607,744 $3,481,627 -$126,117
      -3.50 %

The S&P 500 has pulled back in the new year, falling 3.44% (-0.93% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

Unfortunately, the devastating California wildfires are dominating the current news cycle. The loss of life and property damage has been terribly high and is getting worse every day. My thoughts are with everyone there and I hope the fires are brought under control soon so the long recovery can begin.

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for December fell to 4.1%, with a blowout number of 256,000 new jobs created. That was not good news for the stock market as the resilient economy could lead to fewer interest rate cuts in 2025. It's also unclear what impact the proposed tariffs, trade wars, isolationism, mass deportations, debt-financed tax cuts, meddling with the Federal Reserve, etc. proposed by incoming Trump administration will have on inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Unfortunately, the economy is strong enough right now that things are more likely to get worse than get better. Also, oil prices have risen to the $78 level (from $69) with that $78 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.79 and a heating oil price of $3.10 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have dropped a bit since the last update. I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (4.615%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.335%. I also started rolling 4 week T-Bills (4.339%) to try to get a bit more tax-equivalent yield on short-term cash than money market funds are currently offering.

As for the non-financial, we officially put the holidays behind us by taking down our Christmas decorations a few days ago and trying to start fresh with the new year. For better or worse, extended family drama and mistakes by my S-Corp payroll and 401k providers are definitely motivating me to put 2024 behind me. I'm also still trying to wrap my head around a young relative's foolish financial choices and know at some point their never-ending spending spree on new cars, vacations, and gadgets will end badly. Not my circus, not my monkeys, right?

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

December 2024 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on December 10th, 2024:

Asset Nov 2024 Dec 2024 Change




Checking 2,079 3,459 1,380
Money Market 81,518 81,243 -275
Savings Bonds 245,007 245,698 691
Treasurys 100,000 100,000 0
CDs 52,191 52,371 180
Brokerage 574,081 553,079 -21,002
401k 466,238 475,046 8,808
Roth IRA 324,030 328,000 3,970
IRA 1,580,033 1,598,480 18,447
529 Savings 168,541 170,368 1,827
Total Assets $3,593,718 $3,607,744 $14,026
      0.39 %

The S&P 500 continued to touch all-time highs, breaking the 6,000 barrier and rising 0.85% (+26.52% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for November rose slightly to 4.2%, with a surge of 227,000 new jobs created. Oil prices have been relatively flat at the $69 level (from $68) with that $69 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.83 and a heating oil price of $2.90 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from November 2024! I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (5.103%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.511%. I also had 12 month T-Bills (5.214%) mature and used those funds to add another rung to my fixed income ladder with 5 Year T-Notes (4.197%). It's also noteworthy that my brokerage account balance dropped a bit after Oracle Corporation (ORCL) had a disappointing earnings release this week.

I'm also getting a bit stressed that Christmas is only a couple of weeks away and I still have so much to do. Let's just say that things are getting a bit stressful between medical appointments, things happening around the house, getting ready for the holidays and wrapping up EOY tasks for my business. I'll be glad when everything is done and life can get back to normalish.

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

November 2024 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on November 12th, 2024:

Asset Oct 2024 Nov 2024 Change




Checking 2,871 2,079 -792
Money Market 78,536 81,518 2,982
Savings Bonds 244,314 245,007 693
Treasurys 100,000 100,000 0
CDs 52,005 52,191 186
Brokerage 538,638 574,081 35,443
401k 442,853 466,238 23,385
Roth IRA 321,722 324,030 2,308
IRA 1,552,757 1,580,033 27,276
529 Savings 169,363 168,541 -822
Total Assets $3,503,059 $3,593,718 $90,659
      2.59 %

The S&P 500 continued a strong run, rising 3.53% (+25.45% YTD) as it hit all-time highs since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for October remained at 4.1%, with only 12,000 new jobs created as hurricanes and labor strikes provided a temporary drag on the job market. Oil prices fell to the $68 level (from $75) with that $68 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.94 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from October 2024! I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (5.212%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.553%. There was also an unusual move for me, where I bought some 5 year TIPS in my IRA at the Treasury auction last month with a real yield to maturity of 1.670%.

And to wrap up, I am soooo glad that the 2024 presidential election is over. I certainly won't miss the attack ads and hope the worst of the political rhetoric is behind us. I wish the new President-elect the best of luck, but I'm certainly concerned that the economic proposals he ran on (tariffs, trade wars, protectionism) will impact the great run the economy has been on for the past two years (fingers crossed).

Friday, October 18, 2024

September 2024 CPI-U numbers released: Neutral on I Bonds Purchase


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) inflation data last week, which increased by 0.160% over the past month.

As always, now is one of the best times to consider purchasing I Bonds. The reason for this is that we now know what the rate of return for October 2024 I Bonds will be for both the first and second six month periods, which is important since I Bonds must be held for 12 months before they can be redeemed.

Using the CPI-U data from March 2024 (312.332) and September 2024 (315.301) (courtesy of inflationdata.com), we can calculate the variable rate for the second 6 month period for October 2024 issue I Bonds.


That means these bonds would earn the current rate of 4.28% (using 1.3% fixed & 1.48% variable) for the first 6 months and 3.21% (combined 1.3% fixed & 0.95% variable) for the second 6 months. In the current interest rate environment, an October I Bond purchase is a reasonable choice when compared to something like the 52 Week T-Bills @ 3.946% APY issued on 10/3/2024.

In my opinion, October 2024 I Bonds are a reasonable choice, particularly for the 1.3% fixed rate if you plan to hold them long term. Based on the spread between I Bonds and TIPS, David Enna of tipswatch.com projects that the new fixed rate will fall slightly to 1.20%, which would make a purchase before the end of the month even more attractive. I've already maxed out my 2024 I Bond limit, so I'll evaluate them again in April 2025 once the March 2025 CPI-U numbers are released.

Friday, October 11, 2024

October 2024 Financial Asset Roundup

Here are my current financial assets as of the market close on October 10th, 2024:

Asset Sep 2024 Oct 2024 Change




Checking 1,848 2,871 1,023
Money Market 78,084 78,536 452
Savings Bonds 243,533 244,314 781
Treasurys 100,000 100,000 0
CDs 51,828 52,005 177
Brokerage 492,227 538,638 46,411
401k 416,376 442,853 26,477
Roth IRA 308,792 321,722 12,930
IRA 1,500,048 1,552,757 52,709
529 Savings 183,165 169,363 -13,802
Total Assets $3,375,901 $3,503,059 $127,158
      3.77 %

Hurricane Milton has followed Hurricane Helene, causing widespread destruction and loss of life in the Southeast USA. My best to the residents and rescue personnel who are working through this as a long recovery and rebuilding process begins to take shape.

The S&P 500 had another strong month, rising 5.18% (+21.18% YTD) since the last update:

(chart courtesy of nasdaq.com)

On the jobs front, the unemployment rate for September fell to 4.1%, with a surprisingly strong 254,000 new jobs created. Oil prices rose to the $75 level (from $67) as tensions in the Middle East flared (again), with that $75 price reflected in a local unleaded regular gasoline price of $2.94 at my last fill-up.

On the financial front, my assets have again hit an all-time high, surpassing the previous high from September 2024! I did the usual Fidelity 401k transaction (FSKAX) and Vanguard VTI purchase in my taxable brokerage account. I also took an S Corp distribution and my 13 week T-Bills (5.383%) matured and were rolled into new ones at 4.615%. You can also see from my reduced 529 savings plan balance that I successfully completed a Fidelity 529 to Vanguard Roth IRA rollover for my children, maxing out their 2024 Roth IRA contributions.

Finally, the September 2024 CPI-U numbers came out yesterday, so we now know the full interest rate picture for October 2024 issue I Bonds over the next year. I'm hoping to make a follow-up post with more details next week.